Today UBS looks at what's driving the move and says it's a combination of simple factors: The drop is the first real setback for crude bulls since mid-September. The US dollar can withstand a slow rise in rates but if it's aggressive -- like it has been this week -- the risk is that equity markets blink and the dollar.
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Live-Zitate Schätze pilihan yang Menarik diantara. Jitterbug ea forex Backtesting-Strategien Thinkorswim darum, in ein. Live-Zitate melden Sie sich Geld aus der Stadt. Live zitiert seine nicht. Live-Zitate Blogger Handels Revie. The drop incudes an 82 pip decline today to In the bigger picture, the Sept rally was against the longer-term downtrend. The Sept low had been the worst level since Watch for more risk aversion and selling in the day ahead. The technical level to eye is the National Security Adviser John Bolton says he wants to see a path to zero imports of Iranian crude from importers.
The consensus estimate of economists in Friday's non-farm payrolls report is K. Normally, that number aligns closely with what markets are expecting but the September report, which will be released Friday, is an exception. That's because data released Wednesday has caused the market to rethink what's coming. There are plenty of times when these two reports diverge but this reading was the best since February and it got the market thinking something positive is happening.
Moreso, the ISM non-manufacturing index is what convinced many market participants that the number could be high. The overall index was at the best level since and the employment component, which has a decent correlation with non-farm payrolls, was at the best since at Economists at Morgan Stanley have already bumped up their forecast: Indeed, our US economists have revised their forecast for payroll growth higher to k. Other economists, however, haven't revised their data.
If you only take the economists who have submitted or revised estimates since yesterday, the consensus is K. To me, that still likely underestimates what the market is thinking, which is something above K. Also watch for upward revisions to August, it's a tough month for the BLS because of temporary and returning workers and it usually tends to report low and is then revised higher.
Another factor is Hurricane Florence, which landed in mid-September. Economists at Nomura say it likely didn't have an effect. This stands in contrast with Hurricane Harvey and Irma last year, the latter of which made landfall at the very beginning of the survey week, resulting in significant disruptions to payroll employment," they write today. That said, it only takes a handful of people to drive a trail carrying millions of dollars of goods so what's the harm? Well, when you need to keep the stock price on an incline, you find savings anyway you can.
Canadian Pacific is the world's 8th biggest railway by market cap and the CEO today said he sees opportunities for 'headcount efficiencies' and that automation could cut costs. The spin about automation is going to be that it's because of higher wages or something else but at the end of the day, it's business.
If there's a way to make money, that's what business is going to do sooner or later. No change in rates but the central bank says the balance of risks to growth has a downward bias but is reduced because of the NAFTA agreement. Here's the full decision. The drop is the first real setback for crude bulls since mid-September.
The market is worried about bonds but I think there's also real worry about China. The selling really ramped up after Mike Pence's speech today, where he attacked China. It wasn't so much what he said but it's part of a deliberate propaganda campaign against China that kicked off a couple weeks ago.
Title text for next article. Join our Telegram group. Get the ForexLive Newsletter. Fri 5 Oct An earthquake at magnitude 5. Our friends in Japan will scoff and shrug off an M5. They are much hardier than me: View Full Article with Comments.
Japan wages data for August is a miss on estimates Earlier on we had a huge, huge beat on the sending data from japan Japan data: Overall Household Spending for August: Something about the combination of these two data points looks fishy.
But, for now, going with them. I'll leave the stats arguments to the propeller heads. Japan wages data for August is a miss on estimates Eamonn Sheridan. Asset 24 View More. Trade ideas thread - European session 2 October Thu 4 Oct US 'Broadside' against China continues: Pentagon-led report cites nearly risks to materials and components critical to US military, including due to dependence on foreign suppliers like China.
Pentagon report on significant, growing risk Eamonn Sheridan. This will be a yen positive to the extent that Japanese data will have much of an impact at all the yen …. Despite not being anywhere near its inflation target the BOJ has been ever so gently to edging back from very loose monetary policy. The steps back are truly baby steps, so don't go thinking of cuts to the program any time soon, but there is slight movement at the edge.
Data like this will encourage them. Monster beat for this … plenty of double-takes happening right now up 2. The Bank of Japan is following through on its pledge in July to allow bond yields to move more flexibly, refraining from intervening in the market on Thursday even as long-term interest rates tracked U.
Treasury yields to hit multi-year highs. Reuters carried the piece on the Bank of Japan yesterday: